Record net migration – should we be worried?

In the year to July 2023 New Zealand recorded a net migration gain of just over 96,000 people (arrivals minus departures). This was primarily due to record numbers of people being recruited into jobs post Covid. Plus the return of working holiday visa makers and slowly but surely international students returning.

While the big number grabbed the headlines the more worrying trend is the number of people leaving New Zealand. At last count just over 39,000 left New Zealand which is fast approaching the February 2012 record of 44,000 long term departures. It is not the “desperate and dateless” who are leaving. We are losing young people, skilled workers chasing better pay and conditions plus the attraction across the ditch. Australian employers use New Zealand as a hunting ground for workers. Pathways to Australian citizenship have been relaxed which New Zealand celebrated but did not match with an easier road to New Zealand citizenship to keep those we have recruited. Employers are losing skilled workers and turning to offshore for replacements when locals are not available.

Commentators have been quick to point out for every new arrival they need a roof over their head, and this puts pressure on the housing market as well as roading, schools, healthcare etc. The Productivity Commission recommended 18 months ago that migration and infrastructure planning need to go hand in hand. Since the report was released this recommendation (and others) have been ignored.

The volume of work visa applications being lodged has declined in recent months. That could be a result of a seasonal reduction or an indication that employers are recruiting less from overseas as the economic slowdown bites. Either way time will tell if New Zealand peaks at the 100,000 net migration gain that several economists are predicting.

Citizens of India, the Philippines, China, South Africa, and Fiji represent the main drivers of new arrivals. The high number new arrivals needs to be balanced against the fact there are limited pathways to residence and if this doesn’t change this cohort of arrivals will need to leave New Zealand at some point when visas start to expire.

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